Advances in Weather and Climate Forecast Verification Book

Advances in Weather and Climate Forecast Verification

  • Author : Eric Gilleland
  • Publisher : Elsevier
  • File Size : 17,8 Mb
  • Release Date : 2022-02-15
  • Genre: Science
  • Pages : 308
  • ISBN 10 : 012813853X
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Advances in Weather and Climate Forecast Verification is a resource for researchers and practitioners who are applying traditional and new methods of forecast evaluation. It offers information that will make it possible for researchers and others to apply the newest forecast methods; rather than searching for information in each individual method, providing the information needed to apply all of the techniques in one place. Selection of the appropriate method to apply to a particular problem is facilitated by comparisons of the methods and their results, which will be included in the book. With these skills in hand, readers can make improvements in both their modelling and the evaluation of the results. A single resource on forecast evaluation reviewing both traditional and the newest techniques Summarizes information, including terminology and methodologies, in a clear and accessible way Appropriate for new and experienced practitioners, as well as producers and users of forecasts it allows readers to understand evaluation and interpretation used when choosing a model Demonstrates techniques for forecasting and modeling extreme weather, to produce better quality model outputs when the sample size is not large

Precipitation Advances in Measurement Estimation and Prediction Book
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Precipitation Advances in Measurement Estimation and Prediction

  • Author : Silas C. Michaelides
  • Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
  • File Size : 16,6 Mb
  • Release Date : 2008-02-27
  • Genre: Science
  • Pages : 540
  • ISBN 10 : 9783540776550
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This volume is the outcome of contributions from 51 scientists who were invited to expose their latest findings on precipitation research and in particular, on the measurement, estimation and prediction of precipitation. The reader is presented with a blend of theoretical, mathematical and technical treatise of precipitation science but also with authentic applications, ranging from local field experiments and country-scale campaigns to multinational space endeavors.

Operational Weather Forecasting Book

Operational Weather Forecasting

  • Author : Peter Michael Inness
  • Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
  • File Size : 19,5 Mb
  • Release Date : 2012-12-06
  • Genre: Science
  • Pages : 248
  • ISBN 10 : 9781118447635
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This book offers a complete primer, covering the end-to-endprocess of forecast production, and bringing together a descriptionof all the relevant aspects together in a single volume; withplenty of explanation of some of the more complex issues andexamples of current, state-of-the-art practices. Operational Weather Forecasting covers the whole processof forecast production, from understanding the nature of theforecasting problem, gathering the observational data with which toinitialise and verify forecasts, designing and building a model (ormodels) to advance those initial conditions forwards in time andthen interpreting the model output and putting it into a form whichis relevant to customers of weather forecasts. Included is thegeneration of forecasts on the monthly-to-seasonal timescales,often excluded in text-books despite this type of forecastinghaving been undertaken for several years. This is a rapidly developing field, with a lot of variations inpractices between different forecasting centres. Thus theauthors have tried to be as generic as possible when describingaspects of numerical model design and formulation. Despitethe reliance on NWP, the human forecaster still has a big part toplay in producing weather forecasts and this is described, alongwith the issue of forecast verification – how forecastcentres measure their own performance and improve upon it. Advanced undergraduates and postgraduate students will use thisbook to understand how the theory comes together in the day-to-dayapplications of weather forecast production. In addition,professional weather forecasting practitioners, professional usersof weather forecasts and trainers will all find this new member ofthe RMetS Advancing Weather and Climate series avaluable tool. Provides an end-to-end description of the weather forecastingprocess Clearly structured and pitched at an accessible level, the bookdiscusses the practical choices that operational forecastingcentres have to make in terms of what

Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management Book

Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management

  • Author : National Research Council
  • Publisher : National Academies Press
  • File Size : 19,8 Mb
  • Release Date : 2003-02-27
  • Genre: Science
  • Pages : 67
  • ISBN 10 : 9780309087315
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Accurate prediction of convective storms 2- to 6-hours in advance is critical to selecting air traffic routes with minimal weather delays or diversions. This report summarizes the discussions of a workshop to explore present convective weather forecasting skill, strategies for improving that skill, ways to verify forecasts are accurate, and how to make forecasts useful to air traffic controllers, airline dispatchers, and pilots.

Handbook of Climate Services Book

Handbook of Climate Services

  • Author : Walter Leal Filho
  • Publisher : Springer Nature
  • File Size : 11,8 Mb
  • Release Date : 2020-01-17
  • Genre: Science
  • Pages : 519
  • ISBN 10 : 9783030368753
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This book explores climate services, including projections, descriptive information, analyses, assessments, and an overview of current trends. Due to the pressures now being put on the world’s climate, it is vital to gather and share reliable climate observation and projection data, which may be tailored for use by different groups. In other words, it is essential to offer climate services. But despite the growth in the use of these services, there are very few specialist publications on this topic. This book addresses that need. Apart from presenting studies and the results of research projects, the book also offers an overview of the wide range of means available for providing and using climate services. In addition, it features case studies that provide illustrative and inspiring examples of how climate services can be optimally deployed.

Forecast Verification Book

Forecast Verification

  • Author : Ian T. Jolliffe
  • Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
  • File Size : 6,8 Mb
  • Release Date : 2003-08-01
  • Genre: Science
  • Pages : 257
  • ISBN 10 : 9780470864418
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This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms

Predictability of Weather and Climate Book

Predictability of Weather and Climate

  • Author : Tim Palmer
  • Publisher : Cambridge University Press
  • File Size : 5,9 Mb
  • Release Date : 2006-07-27
  • Genre: Science
  • Pages : null
  • ISBN 10 : 9781139458207
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The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.

Next Generation Earth System Prediction Book

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

  • Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
  • Publisher : National Academies Press
  • File Size : 11,6 Mb
  • Release Date : 2016-08-22
  • Genre: Science
  • Pages : 351
  • ISBN 10 : 9780309388801
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As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Book

Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

  • Author : Andrew Robertson
  • Publisher : Elsevier
  • File Size : 10,9 Mb
  • Release Date : 2018-10-19
  • Genre: Science
  • Pages : 585
  • ISBN 10 : 9780128117156
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The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

Forecast Verification Book

Forecast Verification

  • Author : Ian T. Jolliffe
  • Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
  • File Size : 10,8 Mb
  • Release Date : 2012-01-25
  • Genre: Science
  • Pages : 288
  • ISBN 10 : 9781119961079
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Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Reviews of first edition: "This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004) "...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005) NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification Software Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).

Advanced GNSS Tropospheric Products for Monitoring Severe Weather Events and Climate Book

Advanced GNSS Tropospheric Products for Monitoring Severe Weather Events and Climate

  • Author : Jonathan Jones
  • Publisher : Springer Nature
  • File Size : 10,5 Mb
  • Release Date : 2019-09-16
  • Genre: Science
  • Pages : 563
  • ISBN 10 : 9783030139018
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The book (COST Action Final report) summarises the proceedings from COST Action ES1206. COST Action ES1206, Advanced GNSS Tropospheric Products for Severe Weather Events and Climate (GNSS4SWEC), was a 4-year project, running from 2013 to 2017, which coordinated new and improved capabilities from concurrent developments in GNSS, meteorological and climate communities. For the first time, the synergy of multi-GNSS constellations was used to develop new, more advanced tropospheric products, exploiting the full potential of multi-GNSS on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales - from real-time products monitoring and forecasting severe weather, to the highest quality post-processed products suitable for climate research. The Action also promoted the use of meteorological data as an input to real-time GNSS positioning, navigation, and timing services and has stimulated knowledge and data transfer throughout Europe and beyond.

Seasonal Climate Forecasting and Managing Risk Book

Seasonal Climate Forecasting and Managing Risk

  • Author : Alberto Troccoli
  • Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
  • File Size : 5,5 Mb
  • Release Date : 2008-01-29
  • Genre: Science
  • Pages : 467
  • ISBN 10 : 9781402069925
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Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.

Completing the Forecast Book

Completing the Forecast

  • Author : National Research Council
  • Publisher : National Academies Press
  • File Size : 14,9 Mb
  • Release Date : 2006-10-09
  • Genre: Science
  • Pages : 124
  • ISBN 10 : 0309180538
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Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

When Weather Matters Book

When Weather Matters

  • Author : National Research Council
  • Publisher : National Academies Press
  • File Size : 19,9 Mb
  • Release Date : 2010-11-09
  • Genre: Science
  • Pages : 198
  • ISBN 10 : 0309177022
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The past 15 years have seen marked progress in observing, understanding, and predicting weather. At the same time, the United States has failed to match or surpass progress in operational numerical weather prediction achieved by other nations and failed to realize its prediction potential; as a result, the nation is not mitigating weather impacts to the extent possible. This book represents a sense of the weather community as guided by the discussions of a Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate community workshop held in summer 2009. The book puts forth the committee's judgment on the most pressing high level, weather-focused research challenges and research to operations needs, and makes corresponding recommendations. The book addresses issues including observations, global non-hydrostatic coupled modeling, data assimilation, probabilistic forecasting, and quantitative precipitation and hydrologic forecasting. The book also identifies three important, emerging issues--predictions of very high impact weather, urban meteorology, and renewable energy development--not recognized or emphasized in previous studies. Cutting across all of these challenges is a set of socioeconomic issues, whose importance and emphasis--while increasing--has been undervalued and underemphasized in the past and warrants greater recognition and priority today.

The Value of the Weather Book

The Value of the Weather

  • Author : W. J. Maunder
  • Publisher : Routledge
  • File Size : 7,7 Mb
  • Release Date : 2019-10-28
  • Genre: Science
  • Pages : 378
  • ISBN 10 : 9781000692716
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Originally published in 1970, this book brings together the most significant and pertinent associations between man’s economic and social activities, and the variations in the atmospheric environment. Particular emphasis is placed on economic activities and the weather, economic analysis of weather and the benefits and costs of weather knowledge. In addition, some of the sociological, physiological, political, planning and legal aspects of atmospheric resources are discussed.